USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US Advance retail sales –Aug- (1.7%), US Retail sales less autos –Aug- (0.4%), US PPI –YoY-MoM- (-5.3% - 0.8%), US PPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (2.2% - 0.1%), US Empire manufacturing –Sep- (14.5), US Business inventories –July- (-0.8%) and ABC Consumer confidence –Sep13- (-45).
2. USD traded near the weakest level this year against the euro as record-low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy higher yielding assets, increases circulation of the dollar in the market.
3. The dollar slightly strengthen against most currencies today as economists said before a report today that retail sales probably gain in August, spurred by the Obama administration’s auto trade in program.
On the upside:
• Some recovery after recent retreat.
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise further if there is encouraging events that boost equities market.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Important)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 10.55GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. JPY strengthen against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, reducing demand for carry trade amid President Barack Obama said job losses are bottoming out and the US economy looks to be growing again.
2. Stocks in Europe remain weak today after reports showed Germany investor confidence probably rose less than expected in September amid the economic recovery gathered strength and stocks surged.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today on some selling pressure.
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance today on buying interest amid encouraging economic figures.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 10.55GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Germany ZEW Survey Economic sentiment –Sep- (57.7), Germany ZEW Survey current situation –Sep- (74.0) and Euro-zone ZEW Survey Economic sentiment –Sep- (59.6).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Wholesale price index –YoY-MoM- (No forecast figures), Italy CPI EU-Harmonized –YoY-MoM- (0.3% - 0.2%), Euro-zone CPI –YoY-MoM- (-0.20% - 0.30%) and Euro-zone CPI Core –Aug- (1.2%).
3. EUR fell against the dollar today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, raising demand for the dollar as safe haven, and some investors took the opportunity to take profit on recent dollar decline.
4. The euro remained weak today as Germany investor confidence rose to the highest level in more than 3 years in September as it rose less than expected despite economic recovery gathered strength.
On the upside:
•US stocks may rise on buying interest; dampen demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the downside:
•Further decline as retreating stocks may increase demand for the dollar.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/JPY– EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 10.55GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil traded below $69 a barrel today as the dollar strengthen against the euro and on speculation US refiners may cut operating rates after fuel stockpiles reached a 26-year high.
2. Oil price remain weak today despite analyst said a report tomorrow will show commercially held US crude oil inventories likely declined 2.5Million barrels as most investors speculate fuel demand will weaken on rising unemployment.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may slightly strengthen further after recent retreat.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow’s storage report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $68 and low $69 (Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 10.55GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (10.55AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly recover in early trading session
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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