USD
Brief:
1. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US personal income –Aug- (0.1%), US Personal spending –Aug- (1.1%), US Personal consumption expenditure –YoY- (-0.6%), US Personal consumption expenditure core –YoY-MoM- (1.3% - 0.1%), US Initial jobless claims –Sep26- (535k), US ISM Manufacturing –Sep- (54.0), US ISM Price paid –Sep- (66) and US Pending home sales –Aug- (1.0%).
2. Tomorrow’s US economic releases, -forecast- US NFP –Sep- (-180k), US Unemployment rate –Sep- (9.8%), US Change in manufacturing payrolls –Sep- (-50k), US Average hourly earnings –YoY-MoM- (2.6% - 0.2%) and US Factory orders –Aug- (0.0%).
3. USD strengthens against the euro today on speculation finance ministers and central bankers will discuss the European currency’s strength at a G-7 meeting this week.
4. The dollar strengthen against the yen today after BOJ Tankan survey showed companies plan to deepen investment cuts, spurring a drop in Asian stocks and reduces carry trade demand.
On the upside:
•Some retreat after recent gains as investors exit position to lock in profit.
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise further if there is encouraging events that boost equities market.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD - EUR/USD
-According to 12:35GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Jobless rate –Aug- (5.8%) and Japan Household spending –Aug- (-0.2%).
2. JPY fell against the dollar as economic reports from China and South Korea reduced demand for the yen as carry trade and as BOJ Tankan survey showed companies plan to deepen investment cut.
3. The yen remained weak today even as IMF said rising unemployment and the waning effects of President Obama’s $787 billion stimulus program will restrain a US economic recovery next year.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today on selling pressure.
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance today on buying interest amid encouraging economic figures.
•Further retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 12:35GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany Retail sales –YoY-MoM- (-2.6% - -1.5%), Italy Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (47.6), France Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (53.0), Germany Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (49.6) and Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (49.3) and Euro-zone Unemployment rate –Aug- (9.6%).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Euro-zone PPI –YoY-MoM- (-7.6% - 0.4%).
3. EUR fell against the dollar today on speculation finance ministers and central bankers will discuss the European currency’s strength at a G-7 meeting this week.
4. The euro remained weak today as EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the Eurogroup will discuss the currency’s advance in preparation for G-7 meetings, and as economists said a report today will show US manufacturing probably expanded last month at the fastest pace in more than 3 years and consumer spending in August grew the most since 2003 as the recession eased.
On the upside:
•US stocks may advance on short-covering
On the downside:
• The dollar may strengthen if stocks retreat.
•Further retreat on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CHF – EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 12:35GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil slightly retreats today as the dollar strengthen, overshadowed a economist forecast that US manufacturing probably expanded last month at the fastest pace in more than 3 years and consumer spending in August grew the most since 2003 as a survey showed OPEC trimmed production for a 2nd consecutive month, led by declines in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Angola.
2. Crude oil inventories rose by 2.8Million barrels last week, gasoline inventories declined by 1.6Million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories increase by 300,000 barrels.
3. Refineries operated at 84.6% of their maximum capacity, down 1% from the previous week, and US crude oil imports averaged 9.5Million barrels per day last week, down 261,000 barrels per day from the previous week
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen further on safe haven demand.
•Further retreat as investors exit position ahead of weekend.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $70 and high $69 (Today’s economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12:35GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12:35AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises in early trading session
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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